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CMEMS

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  • '''Short description:''' The Mean Dynamic Topography MDT-CMEMS_2024_EUR is an estimate of the mean over the 1993-2012 period of the sea surface height above geoid for the European Seas. This is consistent with the reference time period also used in the SSALTO DUACS products '''DOI (product) :''' https://doi.org/10.48670/mds-00337

  • '''DEFINITION''' The Strong Wave Incidence index is proposed to quantify the variability of strong wave conditions in the Iberia-Biscay-Ireland regional seas. The anomaly of exceeding a threshold of Significant Wave Height is used to characterize the wave behavior. A sensitivity test of the threshold has been performed evaluating the differences using several ones (percentiles 75, 80, 85, 90, and 95). From this indicator, it has been chosen the 90th percentile as the most representative, coinciding with the state-of-the-art. Two Copernicus Marine products are used to compute the Strong Wave Incidence index: * IBI-WAV-MYP: '''IBI_MULTIYEAR_WAV_005_006''' * IBI-WAV-NRT: '''IBI_ANALYSISFORECAST_WAV_005_005''' The Strong Wave Incidence index (SWI) is defined as the difference between the climatic frequency of exceedance (Fclim) and the observational frequency of exceedance (Fobs) of the threshold defined by the 90th percentile (ThP90) of Significant Wave Height (SWH) computed on a monthly basis from hourly data of IBI-WAV-MYP product: SWI = Fobs(SWH > ThP90) – Fclim(SWH > ThP90) Since the Strong Wave Incidence index is defined as a difference of a climatic mean and an observed value, it can be considered an anomaly. Such index represents the percentage that the stormy conditions have occurred above/below the climatic average. Thus, positive/negative values indicate the percentage of hourly data that exceed the threshold above/below the climatic average, respectively. '''CONTEXT''' Ocean waves have a high relevance over the coastal ecosystems and human activities. Extreme wave events can entail severe impacts over human infrastructures and coastal dynamics. However, the incidence of severe (90th percentile) wave events also have valuable relevance affecting the development of human activities and coastal environments. The Strong Wave Incidence index based on the Copernicus Marine regional analysis and reanalysis product provides information on the frequency of severe wave events. The IBI-MFC covers the Europe’s Atlantic coast in a region bounded by the 26ºN and 56ºN parallels, and the 19ºW and 5ºE meridians. The western European coast is located at the end of the long fetch of the subpolar North Atlantic (Mørk et al., 2010), one of the world’s greatest wave generating regions (Folley, 2017). Several studies have analyzed changes of the ocean wave variability in the North Atlantic Ocean (Bacon and Carter, 1991; Kushnir et al., 1997; WASA Group, 1998; Bauer, 2001; Wang and Swail, 2004; Dupuis et al., 2006; Wolf and Woolf, 2006; Dodet et al., 2010; Young et al., 2011; Young and Ribal, 2019). The observed variability is composed of fluctuations ranging from the weather scale to the seasonal scale, together with long-term fluctuations on interannual to decadal scales associated with large-scale climate oscillations. Since the ocean surface state is mainly driven by wind stresses, part of this variability in Iberia-Biscay-Ireland region is connected to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index (Bacon and Carter, 1991; Hurrell, 1995; Bouws et al., 1996, Bauer, 2001; Woolf et al., 2002; Tsimplis et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2017). However, later studies have quantified the relationships between the wave climate and other atmospheric climate modes such as the East Atlantic pattern, the Arctic Oscillation pattern, the East Atlantic Western Russian pattern and the Scandinavian pattern (Izaguirre et al., 2011, Martínez-Asensio et al., 2016). The Strong Wave Incidence index provides information on incidence of stormy events in four monitoring regions in the IBI domain. The selected monitoring regions (Figure 1.A) are aimed to provide a summarized view of the diverse climatic conditions in the IBI regional domain: Wav1 region monitors the influence of stormy conditions in the West coast of Iberian Peninsula, Wav2 region is devoted to monitor the variability of stormy conditions in the Bay of Biscay, Wav3 region is focused in the northern half of IBI domain, this region is strongly affected by the storms transported by the subpolar front, and Wav4 is focused in the influence of marine storms in the North-East African Coast, the Gulf of Cadiz and Canary Islands. More details and a full scientific evaluation can be found in the CMEMS Ocean State report (Pascual et al., 2020). '''CMEMS KEY FINDINGS''' The trend analysis of the SWI index for the period 1980–2024 shows statistically significant trends (at the 99% confidence level) in wave incidence, with an increase of at least 0.05 percentage points per year in regions WAV1, WAV3, and WAV4. The analysis of the historical period, based on reanalysis data, highlights the major wave events recorded in each monitoring region. In region WAV1 (panel B), the maximum wave event occurred in February 2014, resulting in a 28% increase in strong wave conditions. In region WAV2 (panel C), two notable wave events were identified in November 2009 and February 2014, with increases of 16–18% in strong wave conditions. Similarly, in region WAV3 (panel D), a major event occurred in February 2014, marking one of the most intense events in the region with a 20% increase in storm wave conditions. Additionally, a comparable storm affected the region two months earlier, in December 2013. In region WAV4 (panel E), the most extreme event took place in January 1996, producing a 25% increase in strong wave conditions. Although each monitoring region is generally affected by independent wave events, the analysis reveals several historical events with above-average wave activity that propagated across multiple regions: November–December 2010 (WAV3 and WAV2), February 2014 (WAV1, WAV2, and WAV3), and February–March 2018 (WAV1 and WAV4). The analysis of the near-real-time (NRT) period (from January 2024 onward) identifies a significant event in February 2024 that impacted regions WAV1 and WAV4, resulting in increases of 20% and 15% in strong wave conditions, respectively. For region WAV4, this event represents the second most intense event recorded in the region. '''DOI (product):''' https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00251

  • '''DEFINITION''' Estimates of Arctic sea ice extent are obtained from the surface of oceans grid cells that have at least 15% sea ice concentration. These values are cumulated in the entire Northern Hemisphere (excluding ice lakes) and from 1993 up to the year 2019 aiming to: i) obtain the Arctic sea ice extent as expressed in millions of km square (106 km2) to monitor both the large-scale variability and mean state and change. ii) to monitor the change in sea ice extent as expressed in millions of km squared per decade (106 km2/decade), or in sea ice extent loss since the beginning of the time series as expressed in percent per decade (%/decade; reference period being the first date of the key figure b) dot-dashed trend line, Vaughan et al., 2013). These trends are calculated in three ways, i.e. (i) from the annual mean values; (ii) from the March values (winter ice loss); (iii) from September values (summer ice loss). The Arctic sea ice extent used here is based on the “multi-product” (GLOBAL_MULTIYEAR_PHY_ENS_001_031) approach as introduced in the second issue of the Ocean State Report (CMEMS OSR, 2017). Five global products have been used to build the ensemble mean, and its associated ensemble spread. '''CONTEXT''' Sea ice is frozen seawater that floats on the ocean surface. This large blanket of millions of square kilometers insulates the relatively warm ocean waters from the cold polar atmosphere. The seasonal cycle of the sea ice, forming and melting with the polar seasons, impacts both human activities and biological habitat. Knowing how and how much the sea ice cover is changing is essential for monitoring the health of the Earth as sea ice is one of the highest sensitive natural environments. Variations in sea ice cover can induce changes in ocean stratification, in global and regional sea level rates and modify the key rule played by the cold poles in the Earth engine (IPCC, 2019). The sea ice cover is monitored here in terms of sea ice extent quantity. More details and full scientific evaluations can be found in the CMEMS Ocean State Report (Samuelsen et al., 2016; Samuelsen et al., 2018). '''CMEMS KEY FINDINGS''' Since the year 1993 to 2023 the Arctic sea ice extent has decreased significantly at an annual rate of -0.57*106 km2 per decade. This represents an amount of -4.8 % per decade of Arctic sea ice extent loss over the period 1993 to 2023. Over the period 1993 to 2018, summer (September) sea ice extent loss amounts to -1.18*106 km2/decade (September values), which corresponds to -14.85% per decade. Winter (March) sea ice extent loss amounts to -0.57*106 km2/decade, which corresponds to -3.42% per decade. These values slightly exceed the estimates given in the AR5 IPCC assessment report (estimate up to the year 2012) as a consequence of continuing Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent loss. Main change in the mean seasonal cycle is characterized by less and less presence of sea ice during summertime with time. Note: The key findings will be updated annually in November, in line with OMI evolutions. '''DOI (product):''' https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00190

  • '''DEFINITION''' The sea level ocean monitoring indicator has been presented in the Copernicus Ocean State Report #8. The sea level ocean monitoring indicator is derived from the DUACS delayed-time (DT-2024 version, “my” (multi-year) dataset used when available) sea level anomaly maps from satellite altimetry based on a stable number of altimeters (two) in the satellite constellation. The product is distributed by the Copernicus Climate Change Service and the Copernicus Marine Service (SEALEVEL_GLO_PHY_CLIMATE_L4_MY_008_057). At each grid point, the trends/accelerations are estimated on the time series corrected from regional GIA correction (GIA map of a 27 ensemble model following Spada et Melini, 2019) and adjusted from annual and semi-annual signals. Regional uncertainties on the trends estimates can be found in Prandi et al., 2021. '''CONTEXT''' Change in mean sea level is an essential indicator of our evolving climate, as it reflects both the thermal expansion of the ocean in response to its warming and the increase in ocean mass due to the melting of ice sheets and glaciers(WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group, 2018). According to the IPCC 6th assessment report (IPCC WGI, 2021), global mean sea level (GMSL) increased by 0.20 [0.15 to 0.25] m over the period 1901 to 2018 with a rate of rise that has accelerated since the 1960s to 3.7 [3.2 to 4.2] mm/yr for the period 2006–2018. Human activity was very likely the main driver of observed GMSL rise since 1970 (IPCC WGII, 2021). The weight of the different contributions evolves with time and in the recent decades the mass change has increased, contributing to the on-going acceleration of the GMSL trend (IPCC, 2022a; Legeais et al., 2020; Horwath et al., 2022). At regional scale, sea level does not change homogenously, and regional sea level change is also influenced by various other processes, with different spatial and temporal scales, such as local ocean dynamic, atmospheric forcing, Earth gravity and vertical land motion changes (IPCC WGI, 2021). The adverse effects of floods, storms and tropical cyclones, and the resulting losses and damage, have increased as a result of rising sea levels, increasing people and infrastructure vulnerability and food security risks, particularly in low-lying areas and island states (IPCC, 2019, 2022b). Adaptation and mitigation measures such as the restoration of mangroves and coastal wetlands, reduce the risks from sea level rise (IPCC, 2022c). '''KEY FINDINGS''' The altimeter sea level trends over the [1999/02/20 to 2024/11/19] period exhibit large-scale variations with trends up to +10 mm/yr in regions such as the western tropical Pacific Ocean. In this area, trends are mainly of thermosteric origin (Legeais et al., 2018; Meyssignac et al., 2017) in response to increased easterly winds during the last two decades associated with the decreasing Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)/Pacific Decadal Oscillation (e.g., McGregor et al., 2012; Merrifield et al., 2012; Palanisamy et al., 2015; Rietbroek et al., 2016). Prandi et al. (2021) have estimated a regional altimeter sea level error budget from which they determine a regional error variance-covariance matrix and they provide uncertainties of the regional sea level trends. Over 1993-2019, the averaged local sea level trend uncertainty is around 0.83 mm/yr with local values ranging from 0.78 to 1.22 mm/yr. '''DOI (product):''' https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00238

  • '''Short description:''' For the Mediterranean Sea - The product contains daily Level-3 sea surface wind with a 1km horizontal pixel spacing using Near Real-Time Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) observations and their collocated European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model outputs. Products are updated several times daily to provide the best product timeliness. '''DOI (product) :''' https://doi.org/10.48670/mds-00334

  • '''DEFINITION''' The indicator of the Kuroshio extension phase variations is based on the standardized high frequency altimeter Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) averaged in the area 142-149°E and 32-37°N and computed from the DUACS delayed-time (CMEMS SEALEVEL_GLO_PHY_L4_MY_008_047) and near real-time (CMEMS SEALEVEL_GLO_PHY_L4_NRT _008_046) altimeter sea level gridded products. ""CONTEXT"" The Kuroshio Extension is an eastward-flowing current in the subtropical western North Pacific after the Kuroshio separates from the coast of Japan at 35°N, 140°E. Being the extension of a wind-driven western boundary current, the Kuroshio Extension is characterized by a strong variability and is rich in large-amplitude meanders and energetic eddies (Niiler et al., 2003; Qiu, 2003, 2002). The Kuroshio Extension region has the largest sea surface height variability on sub-annual and decadal time scales in the extratropical North Pacific Ocean (Jayne et al., 2009; Qiu and Chen, 2010, 2005). Prediction and monitoring of the path of the Kuroshio are of huge importance for local economies as the position of the Kuroshio extension strongly determines the regions where phytoplankton and hence fish are located. Unstable (contracted) phase of the Kuroshio enhance the production of Chlorophyll (Lin et al., 2014). ""CMEMS KEY FINDINGS"" The different states of the Kuroshio extension phase have been presented and validated by (Bessières et al., 2013) and further reported by Drévillon et al. (2018) in the Copernicus Ocean State Report #2. Two rather different states of the Kuroshio extension are observed: an ‘elongated state’ (also called ‘strong state’) corresponding to a narrow strong steady jet, and a ‘contracted state’ (also called ‘weak state’) in which the jet is weaker and more unsteady, spreading on a wider latitudinal band. When the Kuroshio Extension jet is in a contracted (elongated) state, the upstream Kuroshio Extension path tends to become more (less) variable and regional eddy kinetic energy level tends to be higher (lower). In between these two opposite phases, the Kuroshio extension jet has many intermediate states of transition and presents either progressively weakening or strengthening trends. In 2018, the indicator reveals an elongated state followed by a weakening neutral phase since then. '''DOI (product):''' https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00222

  • '''DEFINITION''' Ocean heat content (OHC) is defined here as the deviation from a reference period (1993-2014) and is closely proportional to the average temperature change from z1 = 0 m to z2 = 700 m depth: OHC=∫_(z_1)^(z_2)ρ_0 c_p (T_yr-T_clim )dz [1] with a reference density of = 1030 kgm-3 and a specific heat capacity of cp = 3980 J kg-1 °C-1 (e.g. von Schuckmann et al., 2009). Time series of annual mean values area averaged ocean heat content is provided for the Mediterranean Sea (30°N, 46°N; 6°W, 36°E) and is evaluated for topography deeper than 300m. '''CONTEXT''' Knowing how much and where heat energy is stored and released in the ocean is essential for understanding the contemporary Earth system state, variability and change, as the oceans shape our perspectives for the future. The quality evaluation of MEDSEA_OMI_OHC_area_averaged_anomalies is based on the “multi-product” approach as introduced in the second issue of the Ocean State Report (von Schuckmann et al., 2018), and following the MyOcean’s experience (Masina et al., 2017). Six global products and a regional (Mediterranean Sea) product have been used to build an ensemble mean, and its associated ensemble spread. The reference products are: • The Mediterranean Sea Reanalysis at 1/24 degree horizontal resolution (MEDSEA_MULTIYEAR_PHY_006_004, DOI: https://doi.org/10.25423/CMCC/MEDSEA_MULTIYEAR_PHY_006_004_E3R1, Escudier et al., 2020) • Four global reanalyses at 1/4 degree horizontal resolution (GLOBAL_MULTIYEAR_PHY_ENS_001_031): GLORYS, C-GLORS, ORAS5, FOAM • Two observation based products: CORA (INSITU_GLO_PHY_TS_OA_MY_013_052) and ARMOR3D (MULTIOBS_GLO_PHY_TSUV_3D_MYNRT_015_012). Details on the products are delivered in the PUM and QUID of this OMI. '''CMEMS KEY FINDINGS''' The ensemble mean ocean heat content anomaly time series over the Mediterranean Sea shows a continuous increase in the period 1993-2022 at rate of 1.38±0.08 W/m2 in the upper 700m. After 2005 the rate has clearly increased with respect the previous decade, in agreement with Iona et al. (2018). '''DOI (product):''' https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00261

  • '''Short description:''' Arctic L4 sea ice concentration product based on a L3 sea ice concentration product retrieved from Sentinel-1 and RCM SAR imagery and GCOM-W AMSR2 microwave radiometer data using a deep learning algorithm (SEAICE_ARC_PHY_AUTO_L3_MYNRT_011_023), gap-filled with OSI SAF EUMETSAT sea ice concentration products and delivered on a 1 km grid. '''DOI (product) :''' https://doi.org/10.48670/mds-00344

  • '''DEFINITION''' The temporal evolution of thermosteric sea level in an ocean layer is obtained from an integration of temperature driven ocean density variations, which are subtracted from a reference climatology to obtain the fluctuations from an average field. The products used include three global reanalyses: GLORYS, C-GLORS, ORAS5 (GLOBAL_MULTIYEAR_PHY_ENS_001_031) and two in situ based reprocessed products: CORA5.2 (INSITU_GLO_PHY_TS_OA_MY_013_052) , ARMOR-3D (MULTIOBS_GLO_PHY_TSUV_3D_MYNRT_015_012). The regional thermosteric sea level values are then averaged from 60°S-60°N aiming to monitor interannual to long term global sea level variations caused by temperature driven ocean volume changes through thermal expansion as expressed in meters (m). '''CONTEXT''' Most of the interannual variability and trends in regional sea level is caused by changes in steric sea level. At mid and low latitudes, the steric sea level signal is essentially due to temperature changes, i.e. the thermosteric effect (Stammer et al., 2013, Meyssignac et al., 2016). Salinity changes play only a local role. Regional trends of thermosteric sea level can be significantly larger compared to their globally averaged versions (Storto et al., 2018). Except for shallow shelf sea and high latitudes (> 60° latitude), regional thermosteric sea level variations are mostly related to ocean circulation changes, in particular in the tropics where the sea level variations and trends are the most intense over the last two decades. '''CMEMS KEY FINDINGS''' Significant (i.e. when the signal exceeds the noise) regional trends for the period 2005-2023 from the Copernicus Marine Service multi-ensemble approach show a thermosteric sea level rise at rates ranging from the global mean average up to more than 8 mm/year. There are specific regions where a negative trend is observed above noise at rates up to about -5 mm/year such as in the subpolar North Atlantic, or the western tropical Pacific. These areas are characterized by strong year-to-year variability (Dubois et al., 2018; Capotondi et al., 2020). Note: The key findings will be updated annually in November, in line with OMI evolutions. '''DOI (product):''' https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00241

  • '''Short description:''' The Mean Dynamic Topography MDT-CMEMS_2020_MED is an estimate of the mean over the 1993-2012 period of the sea surface height above geoid for the Mediterranean Sea. This is consistent with the reference time period also used in the SSALTO DUACS products '''DOI (product) :''' https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00151