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weather-climate-and-seasonal-forecasting

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  • '''DEFINITION''' The OMI_CLIMATE_SST_BAL_area_averaged_anomalies product includes time series of monthly mean SST anomalies over the period 1993-2022, relative to the 1993-2014 climatology, averaged for the Baltic Sea. The SST Level 4 analysis products that provide the input to the monthly averages are taken from the reprocessed product SST_BAL_SST_L4_REP_OBSERVATIONS_010_016 with a recent update to include 2022. The product has a spatial resolution of 0.02 in latitude and longitude. The OMI time series runs from Jan 1, 1993 to December 31, 2022 and is constructed by calculating monthly averages from the daily level 4 SST analysis fields of the SST_BAL_SST_L4_REP_OBSERVATIONS_010_016 product from 1993 to 2022. See the Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Reports (section 1.1 in Von Schuckmann et al., 2016; section 3 in Von Schuckmann et al., 2018) for more information on the OMI product. '''CONTEXT''' Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is an Essential Climate Variable (GCOS) that is an important input for initialising numerical weather prediction models and fundamental for understanding air-sea interactions and monitoring climate change (GCOS 2010). The Baltic Sea is a region that requires special attention regarding the use of satellite SST records and the assessment of climatic variability (Høyer and She 2007; Høyer and Karagali 2016). The Baltic Sea is a semi-enclosed basin with natural variability and it is influenced by large-scale atmospheric processes and by the vicinity of land. In addition, the Baltic Sea is one of the largest brackish seas in the world. When analysing regional-scale climate variability, all these effects have to be considered, which requires dedicated regional and validated SST products. Satellite observations have previously been used to analyse the climatic SST signals in the North Sea and Baltic Sea (BACC II Author Team 2015; Lehmann et al. 2011). Recently, Høyer and Karagali (2016) demonstrated that the Baltic Sea had warmed 1-2 oC from 1982 to 2012 considering all months of the year and 3-5 oC when only July-September months were considered. This was corroborated in the Ocean State Reports (section 1.1 in Von Schuckmann et al., 2016; section 3 in Von Schuckmann et al., 2018). '''CMEMS KEY FINDINGS''' The basin-average trend of SST anomalies for Baltic Sea region amounts to 0.048±0.006°C/year over the period 1993-2022 which corresponds to an average warming of 1.44°C. Adding the North Sea area, the average trend amounts to 0.029±0.003°C/year over the same period, which corresponds to an average warming of 0.87°C for the entire region since 1993. '''Figure caption''' Time series of monthly mean (turquoise line) and annual mean (blue line) of sea surface temperature anomalies for January 1993 to December 2022, relative to the 1993-2014 mean, combined for the Baltic Sea and North Sea SST (OMI_CLIMATE_SST_BAL_area_averaged_anomalies). The data are based on the multi-year Baltic Sea L4 satellite SST reprocessed product SST_BAL_SST_L4_REP_OBSERVATIONS_010_016. '''DOI (product):''' https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00205

  • '''Short description:''' For the Global Ocean- In-situ observation yearly delivery in delayed mode. The In Situ delayed mode product designed for reanalysis purposes integrates the best available version of in situ data for temperature and salinity measurements. These data are collected from main global networks (Argo, GOSUD, OceanSITES, World Ocean Database) completed by European data provided by EUROGOOS regional systems and national system by the regional INS TAC components. It is updated on a yearly basis. The time coverage has been extended in the past by integration of EN4 data for the period 1950-1990. Acces through CMEMS Catalogue after registration: http://marine.copernicus.eu/ '''Detailed description: ''' Ocean circulation models need information on the interior of the ocean to be able to generate accurate forecast. This information is only available from in-situ measurement. However this information is acquired all around the world and not easily available to the operational users. Therefore, INS TAC , by connecting to a lot of international networks, collects, controls and disseminates the relevant in-situ data to operational users . For reanalysis purposes, operational centres needs to access to the best available datasets with the best possible coverage and where additional quality control procedures have been performed. This dataset suits research community needs Each year, a new release of this product is issued containing all the observations gathered by the INS TAC global component operated by Coriolis. '''Processing information:''' From the near real time INS TAC product validated on a daily and weekly basis for forecasting purposes, a scientifically validated product is created . It s a ""reference product"" updated on a yearly basis. This product has been controlled using an objective analysis (statistical tests) method and a visual quality control (QC). This QC procedure has been developed with the main objective to improve the quality of the dataset to the level required by the climate application and the physical ocean re-analysis activities. It provides T and S weekly gridded fields and individual profiles both on their original level and interpolated level. The measured parameters, depending on the data source, are : temperature, salinity. The reference level of measurements is immersion (in meters) or pressure (in decibars). The EN4 data were converted to the CORA NetCDF format without any additional validation. '''Quality/accuracy/calibration information:''' The process is done in two steps using two different time windows, corresponding to two runs of objective analysis, with an additional visual QC inserted between. The first run was done on a window of three weeks, to capture the most doubtful profiles which were then checked visually by an operator to decide whether or not it was bad data or real oceanic phenomena. The second run was done on a weekly basis to fit the modelling needs. '''Suitability, Expected type of users / uses: ''' The product is designed for assimilation into operational models operated by ocean forecasting centres for reanalysis purposes or for research community. These users need data aggregated and quality controlled in a reliable and documented manner.

  • '''DEFINITION''' The OMI_EXTREME_SL_MEDSEA_slev_mean_and_anomaly_obs indicator is based on the computation of the 99th and the 1st percentiles from in situ data (observations). It is computed for the variable sea level measured by tide gauges along the coast. The use of percentiles instead of annual maximum and minimum values, makes this extremes study less affected by individual data measurement errors. The annual percentiles referred to annual mean sea level are temporally averaged and their spatial evolution is displayed in the dataset medsea_omi_sl_extreme_var_slev_mean_and_anomaly_obs, jointly with the anomaly in the target year. This study of extreme variability was first applied to sea level variable (Pérez Gómez et al 2016) and then extended to other essential variables, sea surface temperature and significant wave height (Pérez Gómez et al 2018). '''CONTEXT''' Sea level is one of the Essential Ocean Variables most affected by climate change. Global mean sea level rise has accelerated since the 1990’s (Abram et al., 2019, Legeais et al., 2020), due to the increase of ocean temperature and mass volume caused by land ice melting (WCRP, 2018). Basin scale oceanographic and meteorological features lead to regional variations of this trend that combined with changes in the frequency and intensity of storms could also rise extreme sea levels up to one metre by the end of the century (Vousdoukas et al., 2020). This will significantly increase coastal vulnerability to storms, with important consequences on the extent of flooding events, coastal erosion and damage to infrastructures caused by waves. '''CMEMS KEY FINDINGS''' The completeness index criteria is fulfilled in this region by 11 stations, 3 more than in 2019, all of them in the Western Mediterranean. The mean 99th percentiles reflect the spatial variability of the tide, a microtidal regime, along the Spanish and French Mediterranean coasts, ranging from 0.23 m above mean sea level in Ibiza (Balearic Islands) to 0.39 m above mean sea level in Málaga, near the Strait of Gibraltar. The standard deviation ranges between 2 cm in Málaga and Motril (South of Spain) to 8 cm in Marseille. Most of the stations present clear negative anomalies of 2020 99th percentiles, increasing northwards in magnitude, up to -12 cm in Marseille. Small positive anomalies (around 2 cm) are observed however in Valencia and Ibiza (Spain). '''DOI (product):''' https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00265

  • '''DEFINITION''' Estimates of Arctic sea ice extent are obtained from the surface of oceans grid cells that have at least 15% sea ice concentration. These values are cumulated in the entire Northern Hemisphere (excluding ice lakes) and from 1993 up to the year 2019 aiming to: i) obtain the Arctic sea ice extent as expressed in millions of km square (106 km2) to monitor both the large-scale variability and mean state and change. ii) to monitor the change in sea ice extent as expressed in millions of km squared per decade (106 km2/decade), or in sea ice extent loss since the beginning of the time series as expressed in percent per decade (%/decade; reference period being the first date of the key figure b) dot-dashed trend line, Vaughan et al., 2013). These trends are calculated in three ways, i.e. (i) from the annual mean values; (ii) from the March values (winter ice loss); (iii) from September values (summer ice loss). The Arctic sea ice extent used here is based on the “multi-product” approach as introduced in the second issue of the Ocean State Report (CMEMS OSR, 2017). Five global products have been used to build the ensemble mean, and its associated ensemble spread. '''CONTEXT''' Sea ice is frozen seawater that floats on the ocean surface. This large blanket of millions of square kilometers insulates the relatively warm ocean waters from the cold polar atmosphere. The seasonal cycle of the sea ice, forming and melting with the polar seasons, impacts both human activities and biological habitat. Knowing how and how much the sea ice cover is changing is essential for monitoring the health of the Earth as sea ice is one of the highest sensitive natural environments. Variations in sea ice cover can induce changes in ocean stratification, in global and regional sea level rates and modify the key rule played by the cold poles in the Earth engine (IPCC, 2019). The sea ice cover is monitored here in terms of sea ice extent quantity. More details and full scientific evaluations can be found in the CMEMS Ocean State Report (Samuelsen et al., 2016; Samuelsen et al., 2018). '''CMEMS KEY FINDINGS''' Since the year 1993 the Arctic sea ice extent has decreased significantly at an annual rate of -0.75*106 km2 per decade. This represents an amount of –5.8 % per decade of Arctic sea ice extent loss over the period 1993 to 2018. Summer (September) sea ice extent loss amounts to -1.18*106 km2/decade (September values), which corresponds to -14.85% per decade. Winter (March) sea ice extent loss amounts to -0.57*106 km2/decade, which corresponds to -3.42% per decade. These values slightly exceed the estimates given in the AR5 IPCC assessment report (estimate up to the year 2012) as a consequence of continuing Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent loss. Main change in the mean seasonal cycle is characterized by less and less presence of sea ice during summertime with time. The last twelve years have the twelve lowest summer minimums ever measured since 1993, the summer 2012 still being the lowest minimum. 2019 follows the recent trend of the 2010's with a summer and winter well below the 1990-2000's average. Note: The key findings will be updated annually in November, in line with OMI evolutions. '''DOI (product):''' https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00190

  • '''This product has been archived'''                For operationnal and online products, please visit https://marine.copernicus.eu '''DEFINITION''' The indicator of the Kuroshio extension phase variations is based on the standardized high frequency altimeter Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) averaged in the area 142-149°E and 32-37°N and computed from the DUACS (https://duacs.cls.fr) delayed-time (reprocessed version DT-2021, CMEMS SEALEVEL_GLO_PHY_L4_MY_008_047) and near real-time (CMEMS SEALEVEL_GLO_PHY_L4_NRT_OBSERVATIONS_008_046) altimeter sea level gridded products. The change in the reprocessed version (previously DT-2018) and the extension of the mean value of the EKE (now 27 years, previously 20 years) induce some slight changes not impacting the general variability of the Kuroshio extension (correlation coefficient of 0.988 for the total period, 0.994 for the delayed time period only). '''CONTEXT''' The long-term mean and trends alone do not give a complete view of the likely changes in position of unstable western boundary current extensions (Kelly et al., 2010). The Kuroshio Extension is an eastward-flowing current in the subtropical western North Pacific after the Kuroshio separates from the coast of Japan at 35°N, 140°E. Being the extension of a wind-driven western boundary current, the Kuroshio Extension is characterized by a strong variability and is rich in large-amplitude meanders and energetic eddies (Niiler et al., 2003; Qiu, 2003, 2002). The Kuroshio Extension region has the largest sea surface height variability on sub-annual and decadal time scales in the extratropical North Pacific Ocean (Jayne et al., 2009; Qiu and Chen, 2010, 2005). Prediction and monitoring of the path of the Kuroshio are of huge importance for local economies as the position of the Kuroshio extension strongly determines the regions where phytoplankton and hence fish are located. '''CMEMS KEY FINDINGS''' The different states of the Kuroshio extension phase have been presented and validated by Bessières et al. (2013) and further reported by Drévillon et al. (2018) in the Copernicus Ocean State Report #2. Two rather different states of the Kuroshio extension are observed: an ‘elongated state’ (also called ‘strong state’) corresponding to a narrow strong steady jet, and a ‘contracted state’ (also called ‘weak state’) in which the jet is weaker and more unsteady, spreading on a wider latitudinal band. When the Kuroshio Extension jet is in a contracted (elongated) state, the upstream Kuroshio Extension path tends to become more (less) variable and regional eddy kinetic energy level tends to be higher (lower). In between these two opposite phases, the Kuroshio extension jet has many intermediate states of transition and presents either progressively weakening or strengthening trends. In 2018, the indicator reveals an elongated state followed by a weakening neutral phase since then. '''DOI (product):''' https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00222

  • '''DEFINITION''' The ocean monitoring indicator on regional mean sea level is derived from the DUACS delayed-time (DT-2021 version, “my” (multi-year) dataset used when available, “myint” (multi-year interim) used after) sea level anomaly maps from satellite altimetry based on a stable number of altimeters (two) in the satellite constellation. These products are distributed by the Copernicus Climate Change Service and the Copernicus Marine Service (SEALEVEL_GLO_PHY_CLIMATE_L4_MY_008_057). The mean sea level evolution estimated in the Irish-Biscay-Iberian (IBI) region is derived from the average of the gridded sea level maps weighted by the cosine of the latitude. The annual and semi-annual periodic signals are removed (least square fit of sinusoidal function) and the time series is low-pass filtered (175 days cut-off). The curve is corrected for the regional mean effect of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) using the ICE5G-VM2 GIA model (Peltier, 2004) to consider the ongoing movement of land due to post-glacial rebound. During 1993-1998, the Global men sea level (hereafter GMSL) has been known to be affected by a TOPEX-A instrumental drift (WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group, 2018; Legeais et al., 2020). This drift led to overestimate the trend of the GMSL during the first 6 years of the altimetry record (about 0.04 mm/y at global scale over the whole altimeter period). A correction of the drift is proposed for the Global mean sea level (Legeais et al., 2020). Whereas this TOPEX-A instrumental drift should also affect the regional mean sea level (hereafter RMSL) trend estimation, currently this empirical correction is currently not applied to the altimeter sea level dataset and resulting estimated for RMSL. Indeed, the pertinence of the global correction applied at regional scale has not been demonstrated yet and there is no clear consensus achieved on the way to proceed at regional scale. Additionally, the estimation of such a correction at regional scale is not obvious, especially in areas where few accurate independent measurements (e.g. in situ)- necessary for this estimation - are available. The trend uncertainty is provided in a 90% confidence interval (Prandi et al., 2021). This estimate only considers errors related to the altimeter observation system (i.e., orbit determination errors, geophysical correction errors and inter-mission bias correction errors). The presence of the interannual signal can strongly influence the trend estimation considering to the altimeter period considered (Wang et al., 2021; Cazenave et al., 2014). The uncertainty linked to this effect is not taken into account. '''CONTEXT''' Change in mean sea level is an essential indicator of our evolving climate, as it reflects both the thermal expansion of the ocean in response to its warming and the increase in ocean mass due to the melting of ice sheets and glaciers (WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group, 2018).. At regional scale, sea level does not change homogenously, and RMSL rise can also be influenced by various other processes, with different spatial and temporal scales, such as local ocean dynamic, atmospheric forcing, Earth gravity and vertical land motion changes (IPCC WGI, 2021). The adverse effects of floods, storms and tropical cyclones, and the resulting losses and damage, have increased as a result of rising sea levels, increasing people and infrastructure vulnerability and food security risks, particularly in low-lying areas and island states (IPCC, 2022a). Adaptation and mitigation measures such as the restoration of mangroves and coastal wetlands, reduce the risks from sea level rise (IPCC, 2022b). In IBI region, the RMSL trend is modulated by decadal variations. As observed over the global ocean, the main actors of the long-term RMSL trend are associated with anthropogenic global/regional warming. Decadal variability is mainly linked to the strengthening or weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) (e.g. Chafik et al., 2019). The latest is driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (e.g. Delworth and Zeng, 2016). Along the European coast, the NAO also influences the along-slope winds dynamic which in return significantly contributes to the local sea level variability observed (Chafik et al., 2019). '''CMEMS KEY FINDINGS''' Over the [1993/01/01, 2022/08/04] period, the basin-wide RMSL in the IBI area rises at a rate of 3.9  0.82 mm/year. '''Figure caption''' Regional mean sea level daily evolution (in cm) over the [1993/01/01, 2022/08/04] period, from the satellite altimeter observations estimated in the Irish-Biscay-Iberian region, derived from the average of the gridded sea level maps weighted by the cosine of the latitude. The ocean monitoring indicator is derived from the DUACS delayed-time (reprocessed version DT-2021, “my” (multi-year) dataset used when available, “myint” (multi-year interim) used after) altimeter sea level gridded pr oducts distributed by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), and the Copernicus Marine Service (SEALEVEL_GLO_PHY_CLIMATE_L4_MY_008_057). The annual and semi-annual periodic signals are removed, the timeseries is low-pass filtered (175 days cut-off) and the curve is corrected for the GIA using the ICE5G-VM2 GIA model (Peltier, 2004). '''DOI (product):''' https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00252

  • '''Short description:''' For the Atlantic European North West Shelf Ocean-European North West Shelf/Iberia Biscay Irish Seas. The ODYSSEA NW+IBI Sea Surface Temperature analysis aims at providing daily gap-free maps of sea surface temperature, referred as L4 product, at 0.02deg x 0.02deg horizontal resolution, using satellite data from both infra-red and micro-wave radiometers. It is the sea surface temperature operational nominal product for the Northwest Shelf Sea and Iberia Biscay Irish Seas. '''DOI (product) :''' https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00152

  • '''This product has been archived''' For operationnal and online products, please visit https://marine.copernicus.eu '''Short description:''' Global Ocean- Gridded objective analysis fields of temperature and salinity using profiles from the reprocessed in-situ global product CORA (INSITU_GLO_TS_REP_OBSERVATIONS_013_001_b) using the ISAS software. Objective analysis is based on a statistical estimation method that allows presenting a synthesis and a validation of the dataset, providing a validation source for operational models, observing seasonal cycle and inter-annual variability. '''DOI (product) :''' https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00038

  • '''This product has been archived'''                For operationnal and online products, please visit https://marine.copernicus.eu '''Short description:''' This product is a REP L4 global total velocity field at 0m and 15m. It consists of the zonal and meridional velocity at a 3h frequency and at 1/4 degree regular grid. These total velocity fields are obtained by combining CMEMS REP satellite Geostrophic surface currents and modelled Ekman currents at the surface and 15m depth (using ECMWF ERA5 wind stress). 3 hourly product, daily and monthly means are available. This product has been initiated in the frame of CNES/CLS projects. Then it has been consolidated during the Globcurrent project (funded by the ESA User Element Program). '''DOI (product) :''' https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00050 '''Product Citation:''' Please refer to our Technical FAQ for citing products: http://marine.copernicus.eu/faq/cite-cmems-products-cmems-credit/?idpage=169.

  • '''Short description:''' The CDR and ICDR sea ice concentration dataset of the EUMETSAT OSI SAF (OSI-450-a and OSI-430-a), covering the period from October 1978 to present, with 16 days delay. It used passive microwave data from SMMR, SSM/I and SSMIS. Sea ice concentration is computed from atmospherically corrected PMW brightness temperatures, using a combination of state-of-the-art algorithms and dynamic tie points. It includes error bars for each grid cell (uncertainties). This version 3.0 of the CDR (OSI-450-a, 1978-2020) and ICDR (OSI-430-a, 2021-present with 16 days latency) was released in November 2022 '''DOI (product) :''' https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00136