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weather-climate-and-seasonal-forecasting

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  • '''DEFINITION''' Significant wave height (SWH), expressed in metres, is the average height of the highest third of waves. This OMI provides global maps of the seasonal mean and trend of significant wave height (SWH), as well as time series in three oceanic regions of the same variables and their trends from 2002 to 2020, calculated from the reprocessed global L4 SWH product (WAVE_GLO_PHY_SWH_L4_MY_014_007). The extreme SWH is defined as the 95th percentile of the daily maximum SWH for the selected period and region. The 95th percentile is the value below which 95% of the data points fall, indicating higher than normal wave heights. The mean and 95th percentile of SWH (in m) are calculated for two seasons of the year to take into account the seasonal variability of waves (January, February and March, and July, August and September). Trends have been obtained using linear regression and are expressed in cm/yr. For the time series, the uncertainty around the trend was obtained from the linear regression, while the uncertainty around the mean and 95th percentile was bootstrapped. For the maps, if the p-value obtained from the linear regression is less than 0.05, the trend is considered significant. '''CONTEXT''' Grasping the nature of global ocean surface waves, their variability, and their long-term interannual shifts is essential for climate research and diverse oceanic and coastal applications. The sixth IPCC Assessment Report underscores the significant role waves play in extreme sea level events (Mentaschi et al., 2017), flooding (Storlazzi et al., 2018), and coastal erosion (Barnard et al., 2017). Additionally, waves impact ocean circulation and mediate interactions between air and sea (Donelan et al., 1997) as well as sea-ice interactions (Thomas et al., 2019). Studying these long-term and interannual changes demands precise time series data spanning several decades. Until now, such records have been available only from global model reanalyses or localised in situ observations. While buoy data are valuable, they offer limited local insights and are especially scarce in the southern hemisphere. In contrast, altimeters deliver global, high-quality measurements of significant wave heights (SWH) (Gommenginger et al., 2002). The growing satellite record of SWH now facilitates more extensive global and long-term analyses. By using SWH data from a multi-mission altimetric product from 2002 to 2020, we can calculate global mean SWH and extreme SWH and evaluate their trends, regionally and globally. '''KEY FINDINGS''' From 2002 to 2020, positive trends in both Significant Wave Height (SWH) and extreme SWH are mostly found in the southern hemisphere (a, b). The 95th percentile of wave heights (q95), increases faster than the average values, indicating that extreme waves are growing more rapidly than average wave height (a, b). Extreme SWH’s global maps highlight heavily storms affected regions, including the western North Pacific, the North Atlantic and the eastern tropical Pacific (a). In the North Atlantic, SWH has increased in summertime (July August September) but decreased in winter. Specifically, the 95th percentile SWH trend is decreasing by 2.1 ± 3.3 cm/year, while the mean SWH shows a decrease of 2.2 ± 1.76 cm/year. In the south of Australia, during boreal winter, the 95th percentile SWH is increasing at 2.6 ± 1.5 cm/year (c), with the mean SWH increasing by 0.5 ± 0.66 cm/year (d). Finally, in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, also in boreal winter, the 95th percentile SWH trend is 3.2 ± 2.14 cm/year (c) and the mean SWH trend is 1.7 ± 0.84 cm/year (d). These patterns highlight the complex and region-specific nature of wave height trends. Further discussion is available in A. Laloue et al. (2024). '''DOI (product):''' https://doi.org/10.48670/mds-00352

  • '''This product has been archived''' For operationnal and online products, please visit https://marine.copernicus.eu '''Short description:''' For the European Ocean- The L3 multi-sensor (supercollated) product is built from bias-corrected L3 mono-sensor (collated) products at the resolution 0.02 degrees. If the native collated resolution is N and N < 0.02 the change (degradation) of resolution is done by averaging the best quality data. If N > 0.02 the collated data are associated to the nearest neighbour without interpolation nor artificial increase of the resolution. A synthesis of the bias-corrected L3 mono-sensor (collated) files remapped at resolution R is done through a selection of data based on the following hierarchy: AVHRR_METOP_B, VIIRS_NPP, SLSTRA, SEVIRI, AVHRRL-19, MODIS_A, MODIS_T, AMSR2. This hierarchy can be changed in time depending on the health of each sensor. '''DOI (product) :''' https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00163

  • '''This product has been archived''' '''DEFINITION''' The temporal evolution of thermosteric sea level in an ocean layer is obtained from an integration of temperature driven ocean density variations, which are subtracted from a reference climatology to obtain the fluctuations from an average field. The regional thermosteric sea level values are then averaged from 60°S-60°N aiming to monitor interannual to long term global sea level variations caused by temperature driven ocean volume changes through thermal expansion as expressed in meters (m). '''CONTEXT''' The global mean sea level is reflecting changes in the Earth’s climate system in response to natural and anthropogenic forcing factors such as ocean warming, land ice mass loss and changes in water storage in continental river basins. Thermosteric sea-level variations result from temperature related density changes in sea water associated with volume expansion and contraction. Global thermosteric sea level rise caused by ocean warming is known as one of the major drivers of contemporary global mean sea level rise (Cazenave et al., 2018; Oppenheimer et al., 2019). '''CMEMS KEY FINDINGS''' Since the year 2005 the upper (0-2000m) near-global (60°S-60°N) thermosteric sea level rises at a rate of 1.3±0.2 mm/year. Note: The key findings will be updated annually in November, in line with OMI evolutions. '''DOI (product):''' https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00240

  • '''DEFINITION''' The indicator of Volume Transport Anomaly in Selected Vertical Sections in the Iberia–Biscay–Ireland (IBI) region (OMI_CIRCULATION_VOLTRANS_IBI_section_integrated_anomalies) is defined as the time series of annual mean volume transport calculated across a set of vertical ocean sections. These sections have been selected to represent the temporal variability of key ocean currents within the IBI domain. The monitored ocean currents include the transport towards the North Sea through the Rockall Trough (RTE) (Holliday et al., 2008; Lozier and Stewart, 2008), the Canary Current (CC) (Knoll et al., 2002; Mason et al., 2011), the Azores Current (AC) (Mason et al., 2011), the Algerian Current (ALG) (Tintoré et al., 1988; Benzohra and Millot, 1995; Font et al., 1998), and the net transport along the 48° N latitude parallel (N48) (see OMI figure). To produce ensemble-based results, six datasets provided by the Copernicus Marine Service have been used: * '''IBI-REA''' & '''IBI-INT''': IBI_MULTIYEAR_PHY_005_002 (reanalysis and interim datasets) * '''GLO-REA''': GLOBAL_MULTIYEAR_PHY_001_030 (reanalysis) * '''ARMOR''': MULTIOBS_GLO_PHY_TSUV_3D_MYNRT_015_012 (reprocessed observations) * '''MED-REA''': MEDSEA_MULTIYEAR_PHY_006_004 (reanalysis) * '''NWS-REA''': NWSHELF_MULTIYEAR_PHY_004_009 (reanalysis) The time series displays the ensemble mean (blue line), the ensemble spread (grey shaded area), and the mean transport with reversed sign (red dashed line), which indicates the threshold of anomaly values corresponding to a reversal in the direction of the current transport. In addition, the trend analysis at the 95% confidence level is shown in the bottom-right corner of each diagram. Further details on the product are provided in the corresponding Product User Manual (de Pascual-Collar et al., 2026a) and Quality Information Document (de Pascual-Collar et al., 2026b), as well as in de Pascual-Collar et al., 2024. '''CONTEXT''' The IBI area is a highly complex region characterized by a remarkable variety of ocean currents. Among them, we can highlight those that originate as a result of the closure of the North Atlantic Drift (Mason et al., 2011; Holliday et al., 2008; Peliz et al., 2007; Bower et al., 2002; Knoll et al., 2002; Pérez et al., 2001; Jia, 2000); the subsurface currents flowing northward along the continental slope (de Pascual-Collar et al., 2019; Pascual et al., 2018; Machín et al., 2010; Fricourt et al., 2007; Knoll et al., 2002; Mazé et al., 1997; White & Bowyer, 1997); and the exchange currents occurring in the Strait of Gibraltar and the Alboran Sea (Sotillo et al., 2016; Font et al., 1998; Benzohra & Millot, 1995; Tintoré et al., 1988). The variability of ocean currents in the IBI domain is relevant to the global thermohaline circulation and other climatic and environmental processes. For example, as discussed by Fasullo and Trenberth (2008), subtropical gyres play a crucial role in the meridional energy balance. The poleward salt transport of Mediterranean water, driven by subsurface slope currents, has significant implications for salinity anomalies in the Rockall Trough and the Nordic Seas, as studied by Holliday (2003), Holliday et al. (2008), and Bozec et al. (2011). The Algerian Current serves as the only pathway for Atlantic Water to reach the Western Mediterranean. '''CMEMS KEY FINDINGS''' The volume transport time series reveal periods during which the monitored currents exhibited notably high or low variability. Specifically, the RTE current shows pronounced variability in 2010 and during 2014–2015; the N48 section between 2012 and 2014; the ALG current in 2006 and 2017; the AC current between 2005–2007 and in 2021; and the CC current between 2005–2007. Furthermore, certain periods display anomalies of sufficient magnitude (in absolute value) to indicate a reversal in the net transport direction of the current. This is the case for the ALG current in 2017 and 2024 (with net transport towards the west), and for the CC current in 2010 (with net transport towards the north). Trend analysis over the period 1993–2023 does not reveal any statistically significant trends for the monitored currents. However, the confidence interval for the trend in the ALG section is close to rejecting the null hypothesis of no trend. '''DOI (product):''' https://doi.org/10.48670/mds-00351

  • '''This product has been archived''' For operationnal and online products, please visit https://marine.copernicus.eu '''Short description:''' For the European Ocean - Sea Surface Temperature Mono-Sensor L3 Observations. One SST file per 24h per area and per sensor (bias corrected) closest to the original resolution: SLSTR-A, AMSR2, SEVIRI, AVHRR_METOP_B, AVHRR18_G, AVHRR_19L, MODIS_A, MODIS_T, VIIRS_NPP. One SST file per file window per area and per sensor (bias corrected) closest to the original resolution , while still manageable in terms volume over the processed area. '''Description of observation methods/instruments:''' The METOP_B derived SSTs are not bias corrected because METOP_B is used as the reference sensor for the correction method. '''DOI (product) :''' https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00162

  • '''DEFINITION''' Heat transport across lines are obtained by integrating the heat fluxes along some selected sections and from top to bottom of the ocean. The values are computed from models’ daily output. The mean value over a reference period (1993-2014) and over the last full year are provided for the ensemble product and the individual reanalysis, as well as the standard deviation for the ensemble product over the reference period (1993-2014). The values are given in PetaWatt (PW). '''CONTEXT''' The ocean transports heat and mass by vertical overturning and horizontal circulation, and is one of the fundamental dynamic components of the Earth’s energy budget (IPCC, 2013). There are spatial asymmetries in the energy budget resulting from the Earth’s orientation to the sun and the meridional variation in absorbed radiation which support a transfer of energy from the tropics towards the poles. However, there are spatial variations in the loss of heat by the ocean through sensible and latent heat fluxes, as well as differences in ocean basin geometry and current systems. These complexities support a pattern of oceanic heat transport that is not strictly from lower to high latitudes. Moreover, it is not stationary and we are only beginning to unravel its variability. '''CMEMS KEY FINDINGS''' The mean transports estimated by the ensemble global reanalysis are comparable to estimates based on observations; the uncertainties on these integrated quantities are still large in all the available products. Note: The key findings will be updated annually in November, in line with OMI evolutions. '''DOI (product):''' https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00245

  • '''Short description:''' For the '''Mediterranean Sea''' Ocean '''Satellite Observations''', the Italian National Research Council (CNR – Rome, Italy), is providing multi-years '''Bio-Geo_Chemical (BGC)''' regional datasets: * '''''plankton''''' with the phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration (CHL) evaluated via region-specific algorithms (Case 1 waters: Volpe et al., 2019, with new coefficients; Case 2 waters, Berthon and Zibordi, 2004), and the interpolated '''gap-free''' Chl concentration (to provide a "cloud free" product) estimated by means of a modified version of the DINEOF algorithm (Volpe et al., 2018); moreover, daily climatology for chlorophyll concentration is provided. * '''''pp''''' with the Integrated Primary Production (PP). '''Upstreams''': SeaWiFS, MODIS, MERIS, VIIRS-SNPP & JPSS1, OLCI-S3A & S3B for the '''"multi"''' products, and OLCI-S3A & S3B for the '''"olci"''' products '''Temporal resolutions''': monthly and daily (for '''"gap-free"''' and climatology data) '''Spatial resolution''': 1 km for '''"multi"''' and 300 meters for '''"olci"''' To find this product in the catalogue, use the search keyword '''"OCEANCOLOUR_MED_BGC_L4_MY"'''. '''DOI (product) :''' https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00300

  • '''DEFINITION''' Ocean heat content (OHC) is defined here as the deviation from a reference period (1993-2014) and is closely proportional to the average temperature change from z1 = 0 m to z2 = 700 m depth: OHC=∫_(z_1)^(z_2)ρ_0 c_p (T_yr-T_clim )dz [1] with a reference density of = 1030 kgm-3 and a specific heat capacity of cp = 3980 J kg-1 °C-1 (e.g. von Schuckmann et al., 2009). Time series of annual mean values area averaged ocean heat content is provided for the Mediterranean Sea (30°N, 46°N; 6°W, 36°E) and is evaluated for topography deeper than 300m. '''CONTEXT''' Knowing how much and where heat energy is stored and released in the ocean is essential for understanding the contemporary Earth system state, variability and change, as the oceans shape our perspectives for the future. The quality evaluation of MEDSEA_OMI_OHC_area_averaged_anomalies is based on the “multi-product” approach as introduced in the second issue of the Ocean State Report (von Schuckmann et al., 2018), and following the MyOcean’s experience (Masina et al., 2017). Six global products and a regional (Mediterranean Sea) product have been used to build an ensemble mean, and its associated ensemble spread. The reference products are: • The Mediterranean Sea Reanalysis at 1/24 degree horizontal resolution (MEDSEA_MULTIYEAR_PHY_006_004, DOI: https://doi.org/10.25423/CMCC/MEDSEA_MULTIYEAR_PHY_006_004_E3R1, Escudier et al., 2020) • Four global reanalyses at 1/4 degree horizontal resolution (GLOBAL_MULTIYEAR_PHY_ENS_001_031): GLORYS, C-GLORS, ORAS5, FOAM • Two observation based products: CORA (INSITU_GLO_PHY_TS_OA_MY_013_052) and ARMOR3D (MULTIOBS_GLO_PHY_TSUV_3D_MYNRT_015_012). Details on the products are delivered in the PUM and QUID of this OMI. '''CMEMS KEY FINDINGS''' The ensemble mean ocean heat content anomaly time series over the Mediterranean Sea shows a continuous increase in the period 1993-2022 at rate of 1.38±0.08 W/m2 in the upper 700m. After 2005 the rate has clearly increased with respect the previous decade, in agreement with Iona et al. (2018). '''DOI (product):''' https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00261

  • '''This product has been archived''' For operationnal and online products, please visit https://marine.copernicus.eu '''DEFINITION''' This product includes the Mediterranean Sea satellite chlorophyll trend map from 1997 to 2020 based on regional chlorophyll reprocessed (REP) product as distributed by CMEMS OC-TAC. This dataset, derived from multi-sensor (SeaStar-SeaWiFS, AQUA-MODIS, NOAA20-VIIRS, NPP-VIIRS, Envisat-MERIS and Sentinel3A-OLCI) (at 1 km resolution) Rrs spectra produced by CNR using an in-house processing chain, is obtained by means of the Mediterranean Ocean Colour regional algorithms: an updated version of the MedOC4 (Case 1 (off-shore) waters, Volpe et al., 2019, with new coefficients) and AD4 (Case 2 (coastal) waters, Berthon and Zibordi, 2004). The processing chain and the techniques used for algorithms merging are detailed in Colella et al. (2021). The trend map is obtained by applying Colella et al. (2016) methodology, where the Mann-Kendall test (Mann, 1945; Kendall, 1975) and Sens’s method (Sen, 1968) are applied on deseasonalized monthly time series, as obtained from the X-11 technique (see e. g. Pezzulli et al. 2005), to estimate, trend magnitude and its significance. The trend is expressed in % per year that represents the relative changes (i.e., percentage) corresponding to the dimensional trend [mg m-3 y-1] with respect to the reference climatology (1997-2014). Only significant trends (p < 0.05) are included. '''CONTEXT''' Phytoplankton are key actors in the carbon cycle and, as such, recognised as an Essential Climate Variable (ECV). Chlorophyll concentration - as a proxy for phytoplankton - respond rapidly to changes in environmental conditions, such as light, temperature, nutrients and mixing (Colella et al. 2016). The character of the response depends on the nature of the change drivers, and ranges from seasonal cycles to decadal oscillations (Basterretxea et al. 2018). The Mediterranean Sea is an oligotrophic basin, where chlorophyll concentration decreases following a specific gradient from West to East (Colella et al. 2016). The highest concentrations are observed in coastal areas and at the river mouths, where the anthropogenic pressure and nutrient loads impact on the eutrophication regimes (Colella et al. 2016). The the use of long-term time series of consistent, well-calibrated, climate-quality data record is crucial for detecting eutrophication. Furthermore, chlorophyll analysis also demands the use of robust statistical temporal decomposition techniques, in order to separate the long-term signal from the seasonal component of the time series. '''CMEMS KEY FINDINGS''' Chlorophyll trend in the Mediterranean Sea, for the period 1997-2020, is negative over most of the basin. Positive trend areas are visible only in the southern part of the western Mediterranean basin, in the Gulf of Lion, Rhode Gyre and partially along the Croatian coast of the Adriatic Sea. On average the trend in the Mediterranean Sea is about -0.5% per year. Nevertheless, as shown by Salgado-Hernanz et al. (2019) in their analysis (related to 1998-2014 satellite observations), there is not a clear difference between western and eastern basins of the Mediterranean Sea. In the Ligurian Sea, the trend switch to negative values, differing from the positive regime observed in the trend maps of both Colella et al. (2016) and Salgado-Hernanz et al. (2019), referred, respectively, to 1998-2009 and 1998-2014 time period, respectively. The waters offshore the Po River mouth show weak negative trend values, partially differing from the markable negative regime observed in the 1998-2009 period (Colella et al., 2016), and definitely moving from the positive trend observed by Salgado-Hernanz et al. (2019). Note: The key findings will be updated annually in November, in line with OMI evolutions. '''DOI (product):''' https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00260

  • '''DEFINITION''' Estimates of Ocean Heat Content (OHC) are obtained from integrated differences of the measured temperature and a climatology along a vertical profile in the ocean (von Schuckmann et al., 2018). The products used include three global reanalyses: GLORYS, C-GLORS, ORAS5 (GLOBAL_MULTIYEAR_PHY_ENS_001_031) and two in situ based reprocessed products: CORA5.2 (INSITU_GLO_PHY_TS_OA_MY_013_052) , ARMOR-3D (MULTIOBS_GLO_PHY_TSUV_3D_MYNRT_015_012). Additionally, the time series based on the method of von Schuckmann and Le Traon (2011) has been added. The regional OHC values are then averaged from 60°S-60°N aiming i) to obtain the mean OHC as expressed in Joules per meter square (J/m2) to monitor the large-scale variability and change. ii) to monitor the amount of energy in the form of heat stored in the ocean (i.e. the change of OHC in time), expressed in Watt per square meter (W/m2). Ocean heat content is one of the six Global Climate Indicators recommended by the World Meterological Organisation for Sustainable Development Goal 13 implementation (WMO, 2017). '''CONTEXT''' Knowing how much and where heat energy is stored and released in the ocean is essential for understanding the contemporary Earth system state, variability and change, as the ocean shapes our perspectives for the future (von Schuckmann et al., 2020). Variations in OHC can induce changes in ocean stratification, currents, sea ice and ice shelfs (IPCC, 2019; 2021); they set time scales and dominate Earth system adjustments to climate variability and change (Hansen et al., 2011); they are a key player in ocean-atmosphere interactions and sea level change (WCRP, 2018) and they can impact marine ecosystems and human livelihoods (IPCC, 2019). '''CMEMS KEY FINDINGS''' Since the year 2005, the near-surface (0-300m) near-global (60°S-60°N) ocean warms at a rate of 0.4 ± 0.1 W/m2. Note: The key findings will be updated annually in November, in line with OMI evolutions. '''DOI (product):''' https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00233